Saturday, August 6, 2011

2011/12 Fantasy Season Preview - West Brom


West Bromwich Albion FC
Last Season Summary
League ranking: 11th (47 pts)
Points per game (home: away): 1.58: 0.89
Goals per game (for: against): 1.47: 1.87
Number of clean sheets: 2
Top league scorer: Peter Odemwingie (15 goals)
Top league assister: Chris Brunt (11 assists)

Transfers
In: Billy Jones, Ben Foster
Out: Scott Carson, Gianni Zuiverloon, Boaz Myhill

Predicted Season Finish: 12th
Using almost the same squad inherited from last season, I expect West Brom to perform at a similar level. As long as Odemwingie continues to shine, they will have little trouble of survival.

Fantasy Ace: Peter Odemwingie (£7.5m)
The Russian had a superb season before this coming one, and expectations are high. 15 goals and 9 assists had made him one of the best fantasy acquisitions last season. Great investment as your third or even your second forward.

Decent Picks: Chris Brunt (£6.0m), Ben Foster (£5.0m)
Brunt has always been an important player in WBA's midfield. Being an offensive midfielder, he is decent in both scoring himself or feeding the ball to the scorer.

Knowing big problems with their defence, Roy Hodgson decided to loan Birmingham's close-to-legendary goalkeeper Ben Foster. Foster, who made a spectacular 178 saves last season, could be the cheapest yet best solution to defence. Of course, you don't expect him to get a whopping 153 points again with the team with least clean sheets, but still, he's good.

Worth Scouting: Youssof Mulumbu (£6.0m)
Scoring 6 league goals is certainly a promising figure for a midfielder. The Congolese is now 24, and there's still some space for him to improve.

2011/12 Fantasy Season Preview - Newcastle United

Newcastle United FC
Last Season Summary
League ranking: 12th (46 pts)
Points per game (home: away): 1.37: 1.05
Goals per game (for: against): 1.47: 1.50
Number of clean sheets: 9
Top league scorer: Kevin Nolan (12 goals)
Top league assister: Joey Barton (9 assists)

Transfers
In: Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba, Sylvain Marveaux, Mehdi Abeid
Out: Kevin Nolan, Kazenga Lua Lua

Predicted Season Finish: 13th
Big changes are going around at Tyneside. With all their pillars of last season - Carroll, Nolan and Barton - leaving, it remains to be seen how the new players are going to settle at St. James' Park.

Fantasy Ace: Demba Ba (£6.5m)
Unfortunately all the key players from Newcastle were gone for good, so I'll have to pick one of their new players as ace. At first I wanted to pick Hatem Ben Arfa because of all his foot tricks, but his injury after a long injury reduces my good ratings for him.

Ba has only played for half a season for West Ham in the Premier League, but he did the job well. Scoring 7 goals in such a short period without any pre-season training with the club was not easy. With a better team, he should perform even better.

Decent Picks: Yohan Cabaye (£6.0m)
Being an integral part of Lille's recent success tells you how good he is. Featured as a playmaker in Lille's formation, Cabaye's scoring and assisting ability are both outstanding.

With Barton going out, Cabaye will become the main ball feeder to the strikers.

Worth Scouting: Hatem Ben Arfa (£5.5m)
A serious injury haunted the Tunisian for almost one full season, and yet again he was injured during the pre-season tour at US. Hopefully he won't come out with the fate of Van Persie, but before the talented winger is fully fit, don't be hasty to get him.

2011/12 Fantasy Season Preview - Stoke City


Stoke City FC
Last Season Summary
League ranking: 13th (46 pts)
Points per game (home: away): 1.79: 0.63
Goals per game (for: against): 1.21: 1.26
Number of clean sheets: 9
Top league scorer: Kenwyne Jones (9 goals)
Top league assister: Jermaine Pennant (7 assists)

Transfers
In: Jonathan Woodgate
Out: Abdoulaye Faye, Matthew Lund, Carl Dickinson

Predicted Season Finish: 11th
Just the right amount of strength and depth to sustain in the Premier League. The Potters have always been solid since they climbed to the top-flight league. As long as Britannia Stadium continues to be a  stronghold, they will have no fear of relegation.

Fantasy Ace: Robert Huth (£6.0m)
Being a typical German centre-back, Huth exploded last season with an impressive 6-goal, 3-assist record, making him the best mid-priced defender last season. You will need to appreciate the fact that he's a Potter too, as the club is renowned for resolute defence especially at Britannia Stadium.

He's quite expensive now, but the competition for places thanks to the purchase of Woodgate will motivate him to perform better.

Decent Picks: Matthew Ehterington (£6.5m), Kenwyne Jones (£6.5m), Jermaine Pennant (£6.0m), Jonathan Walters (£6.0m)
Etherington has always been the engine of Stoke. Being the main man to take set pieces and also a bonus magnet, you will never be short of fantasy points from this man.

Bought expensively from Sunderland, Jones's performance has been satisfying so far. A pretty decent third striker with great support from midfield.

Pennant's career is far from impressive thus far, but a season at Stoke have ignited his form. 3 goals and 7 assists certainly don't look bad for a budget midfielder.

Frequently featured as sub, Walters can be very explosive at times. More of his goals were scored at cup games last season, and hopefully he can produce more of them at league this time around.

Worth Scouting: Ryan Shawcross (£5.0m)
For some reason Shawcross somewhat reaches a bottleneck at Stoke, with Huth surpassing him as the best performing defender. The former Manchester United youth might just need some fresh air with another club. He can't be bad when several big clubs have approached him.

The Effect of Players Performance Index on Bonus Points

Charlie Adam
"What? I would lose 30 bonus points if bonuses are based on PPI last season???"
I admit I underestimated how much PPI is going to alter the bonus system we are so familiar with. Credits to PLFANTASY, now I have a clearer picture of how PPI is going to impact FPL. The essences are as follows:

  • Defensive Midfielders, defenders and goalkeepers will benefit from PPI as more recognition will be given to them by EA Sports compared to Premier League committee.
  • Upper tier teams will also benefit from PPI as league points obtained will now become one of the criteria to award bonus points.
  • Bonus points are more evenly dispersed. The player who ranked 100th in bonus points still gets more than half the bonus points of the 1st under PPI; under judgement of PL committee, the player who ranked 12th in bonus points is already earning only half of the 1st.
  • Adam was the biggest loser last season with -30 points after PPI readjustment on PL committee's bonus points, with Luka Modric following behind with a score of -23; all the biggest winners under PPI readjustment were defenders and keepers.
More can be read here.

I'll try to incorporate the effects on PPI on my 2011/12 Fantasy Season Preview. Stay tuned!

2011/12 Fantasy Season Preview - Bolton Wanderers

Bolton Wanderers FC
Last Season Summary
League ranking: 14th (46 pts)
Points per game (home: away): 1.84: 0.58
Goals per game (for: against): 1.37: 1.47
Number of clean sheets: 5
Top league scorer: Johan Elmander (10 goals)
Top league assister: Johan Elmander, Chung-Yong Lee (6 assists)

Transfers
In: Darren Pratley, Nigel Reo-Coker, Chris Eagles, Tyrone Mears
Out: Johan Elmander, Ali Al-Habsi, Daniel Ward, Andrew Burns, Matthew Taylor

Predicted Season Finish: 15th
Things are not going smoothly for Bolton this summer. Their top scorer, Elmander, leaves; their joint second top scorer, Sturridge, wants to fight for a position at Stamford Bridge; their best midfielder, Chung-Yong Lee, suffers an injury which will leave him out for one whole season; their best defender, Gary Cahill, is wanted by numerous big teams. All these bad news will bring negative psychological effects, apart from strength reduction, to Owen Coyle's squad.

Fantasy Ace: Kevin Davies (£6.5m)
He's one of the veteran Premier League players whom I like a lot.

Bolton's captain has been so consistent ever since he joined the club. Apart from his second year with the club, his league goal figures is always within the 7-11 range. The best part is, as he ages, his bonus points elevates as well.

With the current strike force at Reebok Stadium, you can expect the skipper to take even heavier responsibility to score. His goals will be crucial for Bolton's survival.

Decent Picks: Gary Cahill (£5.5m), Martin Petrov (£5.5m), Chris Eagles (£5.5m)
Gary Cahill has been the backbone of Bolton's defence for years. As an excellent centre-back he has been performing at a significantly higher level than his partners at the back. Regardless of where will he end up in the Premier League before the transfer window closes, he is always a good bargain.

Martin Petrov has been far from his prime at Manchester City, but he is slowly climbing back. 77 fantasy points from only 1465 minutes suggests that he can share Kevin Davies burden. If he get twice the playing time he got last season, he can be a solid fantasy prospect.

Chris Eagles had a good season with Burnley two seasons before. With Lee expected to out for whole season, the flanks is all up to him to operate.

Worth Scouting: Ivan Klasnic (£6.0m)
The "kidney fighter" will have a bigger role to show compared to last season after the departure of Elmander and Sturridge. Take note that in his first season with Bolton Klasnic scored 8 goals.

Friday, August 5, 2011

2011/12 Fantasy Season Preview - Blackburn Rovers


Blackburn Rovers FC
Last Season Summary
League ranking: 15th (43 pts)
Points per game (home: away): 1.47: 0.79
Goals per game (for: against): 1.21: 1.55
Number of clean sheets: 8
Top league scorer: David Hoilett, Jason Roberts, Nikola Kalinic (5 goals)
Top league assister: Morten Gamst Pedersen (6 assists)

Transfers
In: -
Out: Phil Jones, Zurab Khizanishvili, Frank Fielding, Aaron Doran, Jason Brown

Predicted Season Finish: 16th
It has been pretty silent for Blackburn. Playing pretty inconsistently, you can hardly expect good results from them. The biggest obstacle for them to reach a better ranking is the lack of a star player - one who can give a strong leadership and motivation for them to perform.

Fantasy Ace?: Morten Gamst Pedersen (£6.5m)
I don't feature MGP in one of my posts for nothing.Although he's still a distance away from his best, the Norwegian Beckham is the only one who can instill some excitement to watching Blackburn's play. He's very good in crosses, and has been one of best performer of Blackburn in recent years.

Unfortunately though, he form is rather volatile and thus not so reliable.

Decent Picks: Paul Robinson (£5.0m), Christopher Samba (£5.5m)
It's not a surprise both jewels in defence are good selections for any fantasy team. Robinson, despite his age, is still very good with his acrobatic saves. Added with the fact that he actually provided three assists from his penalty box last season, at the price of £5.0m he's still a good choice as keeper.

Samba is one of the tallest centre-back in the league, and he has been using his height to his advantages. Four goals a season for a defender is a pretty outstanding figure, especially when those who scored more than him as defenders all come with expensive price tags. He couldn't score more due to the fact that he plays for a mid-table club, but at the age of 27, you can expect his best to come sooner than later.

Worth Scouting: David Dunn (£6.5m)
It's a shame that Dunn's frequent injuries is stopping him from becoming a good fantasy bargain. While he has never played for more than 2000 minutes on the course of his career with Blackburn, he is the main set piece taker whenever he's fit. A good scout on him definitely won't harm you.

2011/12 Fantasy Season Preview - Wigan Athletic


Wigan Athletic FC
Last Season Summary
League ranking: 16th (42 pts)
Points per game (home: away): 1.21: 1.00
Goals per game (for: against): 1.05: 1.61
Number of clean sheets: 7
Top league scorer: Hugo Rodallega, Charles N'Zogbia (9 goals)
Top league assister: Charles N'Zogbia (5 assists)

Transfers
In: Ali Al-Habsi
Out: Steven Caldwell, Antonio Amaya, Charles N'Zogbia

Predicted Season Finish: 20th
Forgive me for my pessimism. The Latics were lucky enough to survive last season, but selling the team's top star without finding a decent replacement should be a doomsday for them. All the best.

Fantasy Ace: Hugo Rodallega (£6.5m)
With Charles N'Zogbia leaving, Rodallega has become the only valuable offensive fantasy investments of Wigan. He has good finishing, and is also a bonus magnet of Wigan.

The departure of N'Zogbia may or may not be good for him. On the positive side, Wigan's attack will be more focused on him; on the negative side, the supplies to him will be of less quality. We'll have to see which side will outweigh another.

Decent Picks: Ali Al-Habsi (£4.5m)
Unarguably Al-Habsi is a very good choice for second goalkeeper. Though Wigan is a very leaky team, his outstanding number of saves (121) has effectively compensated his loss of fantasy points. He is very popular as well this season, with more than 20% of fantasy managers picking him.

Worth Scouting: James McCarthy (£5.5m)
The former Scottish PFA Young Player of the Year is far from promising at Wigan so far, but the departure of N'Zogbia could help him to make his name here.