Thursday, July 26, 2012

FPLZ 2012/13 Season Preview: Individual Data Summary

Papiss Cisse is the scorer of goal of the season for last season.
What can FPLZ indices possibly tell you about his performance last season?
After going through with the team data, it's now the time to look at the overall individual data. Before we start, you are welcomed to download the Microsoft Excel sheet (password: "http://p-fplz.blogspot.com/", without the quotation marks) which I have compiled in these few days which contained both the team and individual data summary for your reference. You are advised to read my previous post titled "FPLZ 2012/13 Season Preview: Introduction" to learn about the glossaries that I will mention below to avoid confusion.

For your information, only players from unrelegated clubs with at least 15 points and players from relegated clubs with at least 70 points in Fantasy Premier League last season are classified in the list. Also, bear in mind that these indices take last season's price as the basis of calculations, so adjustments would need to be made to determine players' value this season.

First and foremost, let's view the top 10 players of last season in terms of fantasy scores:

Top 10 fantasy scorers last season.
Player Name Position Total Points #
Van Persie Forward 269 1
Rooney Forward 230 2
Aguero Forward 211 3
Dempsey Midfielder 209 4
Bale Midfielder 195 5
Adebayor Forward 194 6
D. Silva Midfielder 184 7
Walcott Midfielder 169 8
Van der Vaart Midfielder 167 9
Hart Goalkeeper 166 10

Unsurprisingly, forwards and midfielders dominated the table. Joe Hart is the only one in defensive position who was able to squeeze into the top 10 list. The highest scoring fantasy defender, Patrice Evra, ranked 14 last season with 159 points. This clearly explains why you should give priority to attackers, as stated by me in my previous post titled "How to Play Fantasy Premier League 2012/13 Edition".

Next we look at highest bonus point scorers:

Top 10 bonus scorers last season.
Player Name Position Total Bonus #
Van Persie Forward 45 1
Rooney Forward 37 2
Adebayor Forward 31 3
Aguero Forward 30 4
Van der Vaart Midfielder 27 5
Ba Forward 25 6
Dempsey Midfielder 22 7
Bale Midfielder 21 8
D. Silva Midfielder 21 8
Suarez Forward 21 8
Arteta Midfielder 21 8

The top performers' bonus range did not sway much due to EA Sports Player Performance Index (PPI), but if you observe carefully the top bonus pointers have all scored a lot of goals last season. This further justifies the need to spend more money on offence department and simplifies your strategy in FPL, as you no longer need to guess how would the fantasy committee award bonuses.

Moving on, let's see the players who scored the highest in terms of points per 90 minutes (P90):

Top 10 P90 last season.
Player Name Position Mins P90 #
Vellios Forward 259 9.38 1
Anichebe Forward 448 8.84 2
P. Cisse Forward 1106 8.54 3
Berbatov Forward 521 8.46 4
Dzeko Forward 1509 8.11 5
Chamakh Forward 180 8.00 6
Kolarov Defender 823 7.98 7
Adam Johnson Midfielder 1147 7.93 8
Aguero Forward 2576 7.37 9
Rooney Forward 2830 7.31 10

Clearly there are many outliers which distort the quality of the data. After screening out those players who played less than 700 minutes last season, the results are as follows:

Top 10 filtered P90 last season.
Player Name Position Mins P90 #
P. Cisse Forward 1106 8.54 1
Dzeko Forward 1509 8.11 2
Kolarov Defender 823 7.98 3
Adam Johnson Midfielder 1147 7.93 4
Aguero Forward 2576 7.37 5
Rooney Forward 2830 7.31 6
Van Persie Forward 3331 7.27 7
A. Young Midfielder 1565 7.07 8
Nani Midfielder 2104 6.72 9
Balotelli Forward 1326 6.58 10

Papiss Cisse tops the list with little surprise thanks to his spectacular goal rate (13 goals in 14 Premier League games) since he joined Newcastle during winter. Following him are the trio from Manchester City, Edin Dzeko, Alekssandar Kolarov and Adam Johnson. Unfortunately, all of them are not part of Mancini's regular starting XI. Another interesting fact is that Robin Van Persie actually trailed behind both Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney in this aspect, though the differences between them can be considered insignificant.

Next we will look at Productivity Index (PI):

Top 10 PI last season.
Player Name Position Mins PI #
Vellios Forward 259 2.130 1
Anichebe Forward 448 1.737 2
D. Ji Forward 453 1.433 3
Lita Forward 466 1.433 4
Wilbraham Forward 314 1.401 5
Maloney Midfielder 772 1.311 6
Kolarov Defender 823 1.289 7
Lindegaard Goalkeeper 720 1.274 8
Moore Forward 532 1.209 9
Bridge Defender 321 1.186 10

Again it is very distorted and filtering needs to be done. Under the same rule as the filtering of P90 (playing time of at least 700 minutes), the result is as follows:

Top 10 filtered PI last season.
Player Name Position Mins PI #
Maloney Midfielder 772 1.311 1
Kolarov Defender 823 1.289 2
Lindegaard Goalkeeper 720 1.274 3
Sigurdsson Midfielder 1495 1.161 4
P. Cisse Forward 1106 1.160 5
Jackson Forward 948 1.158 6
Helguson Forward 1153 1.138 7
Adam Johnson Midfielder 1147 1.123 8
L. Best Forward 1151 1.086 9
Buzsaky Midfielder 900 1.079 10
Still not a very useful data honestly with Sigurdsson and Cisse the only two regular starters last season. This suggests that PI should be used together with other indices I have introduced to derive meaningful interpretations.

Captaincy Index (CI) is possibly one of the most important indicator to refer to as picking the right captain can really make a big difference. Below is the top 10 performer in terms of CI:

Top 10 CI last season.
Player Name Position CI #
P. Cisse Forward 1.710 1
Sigurdsson Midfielder 1.425 2
Kolarov Defender 1.273 3
Van Persie Forward 1.238 4
Rooney Forward 1.116 5
Jelavic Forward 1.092 6
Adebayor Forward 1.043 7
Aguero Forward 1.039 8
Yakubu Forward 1.013 9
Dempsey Midfielder 0.967 10

Papiss Cisse owned the table yet again with a staggering lead over second-placed Gylfi Sigurdsson. The index has also justified Van Persie's better value over Rooney and Aguero despite being more expensive.

And finally, the overall performance indicator, the FPLZ Index:

Top 10 FI last season.
Player Name Position FI #
P. Cisse Forward 1.258 1
Sigurdsson Midfielder 1.240 2
Ridgewell Defender 0.924 3
Jelavic Forward 0.909 4
Van Persie Forward 0.889 5
Yakubu Forward 0.850 6
Adebayor Forward 0.809 7
Dempsey Midfielder 0.794 8
Rooney Forward 0.778 9
Pogrebnyak Forward 0.749 10

As expected, Papiss Cisse who scored so well in all areas stood on top of the list, followed by another equally superb Premier League newcomer last winter, Sigurdsson. Liam Ridgewell surprisingly stood high on third - 61 points from just 1170 minutes for a budget defender is a fantastic achievement anyway. Nikica Jelavic completed the domination of winter arrivals (the prior three all joined Premier League this January with Jelavic) last season in terms of FI with a good score of 0.909.

For players who played for a whole Premier League season, Van Persie led the pack thanks to his outstanding CI. The rest of the top 10 FI players were all popular fantasy picks of last season as well.

That concludes the overall individual data analysis we are looking at today. Coming up next are team by team analyses! Stay tuned!

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