Tuesday, July 24, 2012

FPLZ 2012/13 Season Preview: Team Data Summary

Are you the next champion (fantasy) manager?
After a long introduction on the glossaries I will be using in my FPLZ 2012/13 Season Preview, let us first begin to analyse the overall team data first before we go on team by team. Below is the table of top fantasy scorers of respective teams last season, with relegated teams (Bolton, Blackburn Rovers and Wolverhampton Wanderers) being excluded:

Table 1: List of Fantasy Top Scorers by Team.
Team Top Scorer Points Team %
Arsenal Van Persie 269 16.5%
Man Utd Rooney 230 12.7%
Man City Aguero 211 11.0%
Fulham Dempsey 209 15.5%
Tottenham Bale 195 11.4%
Newcastle Ba 165 11.0%
Chelsea Mata 162 10.8%
Sunderland Sessegnon 161 12.2%
Swansea Vorm 158 10.5%
Everton Howard 151 11.2%
Stoke City Walters 140 11.3%
Wigan Moses 140 11.0%
West Brom Foster 140 10.7%
Norwich Holt 138 11.9%
Liverpool Suarez 136 9.9%
Aston Villa Agbonlahor 112 10.0%
QPR Kenny 102 10.0%

For your information, Bobby Zamora, who scored 119 points last season, was not credited as the top fantasy scorer of Queens Park Rangers because he scored more points for Fulham than for QPR last season. The team percentages are calculated by dividing the top scorers' points (for example Van Persie) over their respective teams' top 15 highest fantasy scorers.

Unsurprisingly, Robin Van Persie topped the list with 269 points which was 16.5% of his team's best 15, much higher than the rest of the pack apart from Fulham's Clinton Dempsey (209 points, 15.5%). Liverpool, which have gone through a poor season last term, have their best fantasy scorer (Suarez, 136 points) only managed to get 9.9% of the team's aggregate share. Can Brendan Rodgers turn that around? God knows.

And now let's go through the more useful statistics, which are the aggregate scores of the top 3 scorers of each team and their aggregate team percentages:

Table 2: List of Top 3 Fantasy Scorers by Team
Team Top 1 Top 2 Top 3 Total Pts Team %
Arsenal Van Persie Walcott Szczesny 577 35.3%
Man City Aguero D. Silva Hart 561 29.3%
Tottenham Bale Adebayor Van der Vaart 556 32.6%
Man Utd Rooney Evra Nani 546 30.1%
Newcastle Ba Krul Cabaye 450 30.0%
Swansea Vorm Sinclair Graham 447 29.8%
Fulham Dempsey Zamora J. Riise 445 32.9%
Chelsea Mata Terry Lampard 438 29.1%
Sunderland Sessegnon Larsson Mignolet 410 31.1%
Everton Howard Baines Heitinga 400 29.7%
Stoke City Walters Crouch Etherington 391 31.6%
Wigan Moses Al-Habsi Caldwell 381 29.9%
Liverpool Suarez Reina J. Enrique 374 27.1%
West Brom Foster Odemwingie McAuley 364 27.9%
Norwich Holt Pilkington Morrison 359 31.0%
Aston Villa Agbonlahor Warnock Given 306 27.3%
QPR Kenny Mackie Barton 297 29.0%

The reason to measure the top 3 scorers of each team is due to the fact that you can only pick at most 3 players from the same team. This will approximately show you the maximum scoring potential of each teams.

Based on the results, you can clearly split the teams into 4 tiers. The first tier consists of the super productive fantasy teams, namely Arsenal, Manchester duo (City and United), and Tottenham Hotspur. Not really surprising though, as all of the tier 1 teams have been so prolific in offence last season.

Tier 2 meanwhile consists of Newcastle, Swansea, Fulham, and Chelsea. Newcastle and Swansea have some great crop of value to money fantasy players anyway, so that was not surprising. Chelsea's performance weren't up to par given their players' fantasy price, while Fulham's position in tier 2 was largely driven by Dempsey's astounding season.

The third tier has Sunderland, Everton, Stoke City, Wigan, Liverpool, West Brom and Norwich within. All lacked of productive and consistent fantasy scorers, though Liverpool have again disappointed fantasy managers the most with numerous big names but poor scores.

Tier 4, the super unproductive teams, has Aston Villa and QPR accompanying each other. Not even any considerable fantasy assets here last season. Your season must have been pretty miserable if you have these players for quite some gameweeks last term.

The more important question: will the trend continues to be the same this term? In general, it should be more or less the same, except for those teams which have undergone some big operations this summer. At Arsenal, Van Persie's desire to leave the Emirates will be pivotal to the Gunners fantasy potential this season; at White Hart Lane, the managerial change from Harry Redknapp to Andre Villas-Boas will certainly give rise to a lot of uncertainties; at Liverpool, the same can be said under the coaching of Brendan Rodgers; at Loftus Road, QPR's continuous effort in transfers can mean a very different season for them.

Nonetheless, I believe the fluctuations will not be very dramatic from one season to another. We can expect some of the teams to move one tier above and others one tier below, but I am certainly not so fancy about the possibility of a major ranking reshuffling next season.

Hope this little piece of information has provided you something and do stay tuned for the upcoming team by team previews!

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