FPLZ 2012/13 Season Preview: Liverpool F.C.

Liverpool F.C.

The Reds with their kit by new sponsor.

You can download the full analyzed squad data here.

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Last Season: Worst Yet
It was indeed quite surprising that Liverpool had undergone their worst ever Premier League season last term under the management of the legendary Kenny Dalglish. Terribly overpriced purchases, coupled with stubborn tactical approach (reluctance to start in-form Maxi Rodriguez regularly) has led to such a catastrophic season. Luck did not go in their favour neither, as they hit the posts and bars so regularly as if they were the "goals".

This Summer: New Manager, New Hope
Brendan Rodgers becomes the new Liverpool manager after such a successful Premier League debut season with Swansea City. There are more outs (Dirk Kuyt, Maxi Rodriguez, Fabio Aurelio and the latest, Alberto Aquilani) than ins (Fabio Borini) currently, with the negotiation to buy Clint Dempsey fails to reach a consensus.

Upcoming Season: Tiki-Taka Transformation?
It is expected to see Rodgers blending his trademark continental football style into the team. However, things can be tough with majority of Liverpool team so used to English style of football. Nonetheless, tiki-taka should be rolled on easier with one or two more additions to the squad.

Suarez: Ajax vs Liverpool.

Hoping for A Better Year: Suarez (FI: 0.421)
Not quite a fine season for Luis Suarez (£9.5m) with only 11 goals - I would have expect the Uruguayan who has just signed a new contract with Liverpool to have at least a 15-goal season.

Still, fantasy committee are putting good faith on him by tagging him £9.5m this season. He should improve though, as I believe the tiki-taka approach should fit him better. Hopefully he can achieve a 15 goal o even 20 goal season then.

Gerrard's historical P90.

Back to His Best?: Gerrard (FI: 0.347)
Steven Gerrard (£9.5m) has been mediocre for the past few seasons due to a series of injuries and tactical failures, but signs do indicate that he is returning to his best.

Gerrard's P90 last season wasn't that bad actually - 5.54 was his third best over the last 6 seasons. Sure, injuries are limiting his playing time, but if he can stay fit this season, you can be hopeful of a solid season from the skipper, especially when he has done so well in the Euro tournament.


Rodgers' Choice: Borini (FI: N/A)
It was quite a long time before Rodgers acquired his first signing at Liverpool, and that lad is Fabio Borini (£8.0m), someone Rodgers had known long enough. The gaffer first worked with the Italian when he was an youth team coach at Chelsea, then at Swansea where Borini joined on loan.

The understanding is there between the two, so one would expect Borini to click instantly into Rodgers' system. Still, it remains to be seen whether Rodgers has the players to unleash Borini's potential.

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FPLZ 2012/13 Season Preview: Team Data Summary

Are you the next champion (fantasy) manager?

After a long introduction on the glossaries I will be using in my FPLZ 2012/13 Season Preview, let us first begin to analyse the overall team data first before we go on team by team. Below is the table of top fantasy scorers of respective teams last season, with relegated teams (Bolton, Blackburn Rovers and Wolverhampton Wanderers) being excluded:

Table 1: List of Fantasy Top Scorers by Team.

Team	Top Scorer	Points	Team %
Arsenal	Van Persie	269	16.5%
Man Utd	Rooney	230	12.7%
Man City	Aguero	211	11.0%
Fulham	Dempsey	209	15.5%
Tottenham	Bale	195	11.4%
Newcastle	Ba	165	11.0%
Chelsea	Mata	162	10.8%
Sunderland	Sessegnon	161	12.2%
Swansea	Vorm	158	10.5%
Everton	Howard	151	11.2%
Stoke City	Walters	140	11.3%
Wigan	Moses	140	11.0%
West Brom	Foster	140	10.7%
Norwich	Holt	138	11.9%
Liverpool	Suarez	136	9.9%
Aston Villa	Agbonlahor	112	10.0%
QPR	Kenny	102	10.0%

For your information, Bobby Zamora, who scored 119 points last season, was not credited as the top fantasy scorer of Queens Park Rangers because he scored more points for Fulham than for QPR last season. The team percentages are calculated by dividing the top scorers' points (for example Van Persie) over their respective teams' top 15 highest fantasy scorers.

Unsurprisingly, Robin Van Persie topped the list with 269 points which was 16.5% of his team's best 15, much higher than the rest of the pack apart from Fulham's Clinton Dempsey (209 points, 15.5%). Liverpool, which have gone through a poor season last term, have their best fantasy scorer (Suarez, 136 points) only managed to get 9.9% of the team's aggregate share. Can Brendan Rodgers turn that around? God knows.

And now let's go through the more useful statistics, which are the aggregate scores of the top 3 scorers of each team and their aggregate team percentages:

Table 2: List of Top 3 Fantasy Scorers by Team

Team	Top 1	Top 2	Top 3	Total Pts	Team %
Arsenal	Van Persie	Walcott	Szczesny	577	35.3%
Man City	Aguero	D. Silva	Hart	561	29.3%
Tottenham	Bale	Adebayor	Van der Vaart	556	32.6%
Man Utd	Rooney	Evra	Nani	546	30.1%
Newcastle	Ba	Krul	Cabaye	450	30.0%
Swansea	Vorm	Sinclair	Graham	447	29.8%
Fulham	Dempsey	Zamora	J. Riise	445	32.9%
Chelsea	Mata	Terry	Lampard	438	29.1%
Sunderland	Sessegnon	Larsson	Mignolet	410	31.1%
Everton	Howard	Baines	Heitinga	400	29.7%
Stoke City	Walters	Crouch	Etherington	391	31.6%
Wigan	Moses	Al-Habsi	Caldwell	381	29.9%
Liverpool	Suarez	Reina	J. Enrique	374	27.1%
West Brom	Foster	Odemwingie	McAuley	364	27.9%
Norwich	Holt	Pilkington	Morrison	359	31.0%
Aston Villa	Agbonlahor	Warnock	Given	306	27.3%
QPR	Kenny	Mackie	Barton	297	29.0%

The reason to measure the top 3 scorers of each team is due to the fact that you can only pick at most 3 players from the same team. This will approximately show you the maximum scoring potential of each teams.

Based on the results, you can clearly split the teams into 4 tiers. The first tier consists of the super productive fantasy teams, namely Arsenal, Manchester duo (City and United), and Tottenham Hotspur. Not really surprising though, as all of the tier 1 teams have been so prolific in offence last season.

Tier 2 meanwhile consists of Newcastle, Swansea, Fulham, and Chelsea. Newcastle and Swansea have some great crop of value to money fantasy players anyway, so that was not surprising. Chelsea's performance weren't up to par given their players' fantasy price, while Fulham's position in tier 2 was largely driven by Dempsey's astounding season.

The third tier has Sunderland, Everton, Stoke City, Wigan, Liverpool, West Brom and Norwich within. All lacked of productive and consistent fantasy scorers, though Liverpool have again disappointed fantasy managers the most with numerous big names but poor scores.

Tier 4, the super unproductive teams, has Aston Villa and QPR accompanying each other. Not even any considerable fantasy assets here last season. Your season must have been pretty miserable if you have these players for quite some gameweeks last term.

The more important question: will the trend continues to be the same this term? In general, it should be more or less the same, except for those teams which have undergone some big operations this summer. At Arsenal, Van Persie's desire to leave the Emirates will be pivotal to the Gunners fantasy potential this season; at White Hart Lane, the managerial change from Harry Redknapp to Andre Villas-Boas will certainly give rise to a lot of uncertainties; at Liverpool, the same can be said under the coaching of Brendan Rodgers; at Loftus Road, QPR's continuous effort in transfers can mean a very different season for them.

Nonetheless, I believe the fluctuations will not be very dramatic from one season to another. We can expect some of the teams to move one tier above and others one tier below, but I am certainly not so fancy about the possibility of a major ranking reshuffling next season.

Hope this little piece of information has provided you something and do stay tuned for the upcoming team by team previews!

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Steven Gerrard: Better Than Ever?

On top of this paragraph is the highlights of Steven Gerrard's performance on EURO 2012 group stage. Majestic. Incisive. Wide vision. All rounder. Captain marvel.

He will definitely be the most important piece of chess of Brendan Rodgers. Hopefully Gerrard's fantasy price won't surge following his impressive form for his country.

Brendan Rodgers: The Winners and Losers Under His Management?

Meet the new Liverpool gaffer.

Overview
Clearly Brendan Rodgers has taken the tough road to join Liverpool in his attempt to bring the old brand of football back to where "it's supposed to be". FPLZ analyzes the impact that the new Liverpool manager is going to bring to the players, especially in fantasy terms.

Out of the Topic: Public Relations Management
It's good to see Liverpool is not taking in another Roy Hodgson - a manager who is so poor in handling the players, the fans, and the press. Rodgers gives Fenway Sports Group a complete different package from the current England national team manager - not only the very different style in tactics, but also his much more superior PR management. For example:

“I know there are three types of supporters at every club,” he said. “Number one is those who, no matter who the manager is, they love their club and they will love their manager because Liverpool is their life and their passion. The second group is supporters who will accept you but to earn their real respect you will have to be successful. That’s fine.


"The third group are the critics and you never change them ever. Ever."


"I only want to work with the people who love the club. I have always had good relations with the media and with the supporters. I’m open and honest. I understand that not everybody will want me here. But that’s part of the dance.”


It remains to be seen how well would he cope with the constant high expectations at Merseyside, but at the moment, he has shown good degree of charisma and has definitely earned my respect.

Tactical Analysis
Tiki-taka was the famous brand Rodgers has established at Swansea, and thanks to such style of play he had managed to win against the big teams such as Manchester City, Arsenal and also Liverpool. It was indeed quite surprising that he actually led Swansea to beat Arsenal via an even more "Arsenal" way.

His tiki-taka approach heavily emphasizes on small triangular pass-and-move, where there are always two players sticking around the ball holder to provide support and ensure that the ball is always under their control. This definitely is not expected to blend instantly into Liverpool's current crop of players, though there are some players who can adapt to this style at ease.

The Defence
The back line is perhaps the most prepared ones for Rodgers infusion of tiki-taka play. Reina has always been a good commander and should have no problem adapting to the new tactics; Agger will be more than happy to stick the ball to the ground; Enrique and Johnson are both fast, offensive wing backs and should also cope well. Skrtel may struggle a bit in the beginning, but with all his defensive partners more than ready to adapt, he should be comfortable with the new style soon enough.

The Midfield
In the midfield, Lucas has developed into a great ball distributor - no problem, though I don't see how a DM is going to benefit from this fantasy wise; Gerrard is always the world class player who can take on any challenges - no problem as well; Sigurdsson, if he's joining, should blend readily since he had already flourished under Rodgers at Swansea.

The Offence
Suarez is the type of player you had expect him to blend instantly into the tiki-taka system - playing with Barcelona is always his ambition anyway; I am a little bit skeptical towards Carroll's response to this new system, especially when Ibrahimovic had actually deteriorated Barca's tiki-taka play in the past; Downing, on the other hand, still gets my vote of confidence despite his poor season - his stats wasn't that bad honestly.

The Bench
Henderson will need a good time to adapt in my opinion - he's a good runner, but needs to know his direction; Adam for me is the biggest loser under Brendan Rodgers - he likes to play long balls and that violates the principles of tiki-taka; Maxi, if he stays, should fuse readily with the system as Argentinians are good ground players; while Aquilani, if he returns, may become Rodgers favourite with the flair he's providing; not to be forgotten is the returning Joe Cole who had a successful revival at Lille - he can be the important chess piece of the new gaffer.

Verdict
I believe you have gotten the idea who will become good Liverpool fantasy assets in this coming season. Agger, in my opinion, will definitely be the top gainer under Rodgers' system with increased participation in offence, while players such as Gerrard, Suarez and Downing can expect a better season ahead if the new gaffer can deliver the same thing he had delivered at Swansea in the past.

Read here for a intensive tactical analysis on Liverpool written by TPiMBW on "The Path Is Made By Walking".